Case Study
Author: Mike Holcomb | 5 minute read
The Opportunity
Long-range category planning needed a forecast the business could defend.
Most manufacturers can tell you what the category did last year and almost none can defend what it does in five. Off-the-shelf syndicated forecasts are built for a market, not for one company’s fiscal calendar or its own set of growth levers, so long-range plans get built on a number nobody in the room owns.
- No tailored long-range view
- Off-the-shelf tools too generic
- Drivers never agreed up front
- Fiscal and calendar cycles differ
The Approach
The approach was a two-sided working model: TPG built and ran the model, the client named the drivers.
Agreeing to the drivers before any output existed is the part that matters. It is what stops a forecast being reverse-engineered from the growth number leadership already wanted.
- Built a bespoke forecasting file on three-plus years of category history.
- Agreed the growth drivers up front so the answer could not bend to a wish.
- Modeled agnostically on category history plus expected competitive behavior.
- Benchmarked the output against third-party forecasts to test the assumptions. A company-specific forecast is only credible if it can be placed next to a third-party view and the gap explained.
- Handed over the model in fiscal and calendar views for the client to run.
The Outcome
A forecasting capability the client runs itself. Transparent drivers, benchmarked outputs, and views aligned to both planning cycles. A live model, not a report with fiscal and calendar views so it plugs into both planning cycles, and enough transparency that the client can rerun it when the market moves.
5-Year Horizon
Flexed on client-agreed drivers
Client-Owned
Built to be rerun in-house
Meet The Team
